Posted 9 May 2020
I have just watched a short interview with Dr Anders Tegnell, Chief Epidemiologist in Sweden.
They are one of the few countries that decided not to impose a lockdown policy, instead relying on self-regulated social distancing by the population. Schools have remained open, most businesses, restaurants, bars, gyms, public transport etc.
Two parts of the interview intrigued me.
First he was asked if he had any regrets regarding not implementing lockdown. Essentially, he had none. He regretted that they had not been more able to stop spread in care homes, but he reflected that few countries had been able to prevent this either. Pushed on whether he regretted that the death rate (per head population) was higher in Sweden than neighbouring countries, he said no. He described the Sweden approach as an ‘holistic’ approach and that their total COVID deaths should be considered in the perspective of:
– their season flu deaths stopped pretty much as soon as social distancing was recommended;
– they have avoided the long-term deaths from unemployment and isolation that will follow lockdown
– they may be closer to achieving herd immunity with an estimate of 20-25% of the population exposed.
Their higher death rate now, he believes will be longer term offset by these factors.
The second part of interest to me, was his response to a question of whether there are any lessons from the Sweden experience that could be utilised in other countries.
He said three things:
1. He is more and more confident that not closing schools was exactly the right thing to do as children do not appear key to the transmission of this disease and the welfare of the children would be too negatively impacted by closures
2. Public confidence in the agency in Sweden is increasing and now at an all time high. 70-80% of Swedes support the actions of the agency and only 5-10% are unhappy with the Government actions during the pandemic.
3. There is more and more adherence to the agency’s guidance on social distancing as time progresses. Partly from point 2 above and also because the Swedish population truly believe that the focussed but limited measures really helped Sweden avoid the social and economic problems that will follow lockdown in other countries. He contrasted this picture with other countries where the population are now beginning to revolt against the lockdown measures imposed upon them.