Posted 26 April 2020
One of the big questions that impact the when and how of relaxing lockdown is “how many of us have already been infected?” As we know many cases are asymptomatic, this is a big unknown.
I have seen many estimates and many uses of various data to try and get at this number. I feel that quite a few are wrong because data showing one thing is being used as if it shows something else.
What I was lacking was a model I could use to explain that.
I have now made my model and no lego bricks in sight.
It is, as is the case when I get my mathematical head on, geeky but if does hopefully explain my thinking. Be that right or wrong!!!